Guantong Futures Comments: In the early trading, the oil and oilseed sector held high, among which soybean meal, soybean meal and rapeseed meal all hit the daily limit. According to the USDA, the soybean planting area in the United States in 2023 will be 83.505 million acres, which is significantly lower than the 87.673 million acres expected by Reuters, and The planting intentions report forecast 87.505 million acres.
At present, El Niño is still strengthening, and it is very likely to evolve into a medium-strong or even strong El Niño in the second half of the year. Historically, the occurrence of El Niño is more conducive to the increase of soybean yield in the United States. According to the recent rainfall model, the rainfall has a gradual increase trend. In the medium and long term, there is still a certain pressure on US soybeans; while my country’s domestic demand for farming is limited, and it is facing pressure to reduce production capacity.
In the early stage, the long position can be appropriately reduced and taken profit after encountering pressure at the top.
