① Theoretical cost of imported soybeans: US soybeans cost 1325 in July, while Brazilian soybeans cost 4140 in June, calculated at a meal reference price of 3650 based on an oil price discount of 7600. The average spot price yesterday was 4040, with a September oil-to-meal ratio of 2.04.
② The international soybean market currently lacks bullish themes from fundamental factors, and is estimated to enter a volatile phase characterized by weather fluctuations. From the perspective of the November contract, which represents new crops, the current price of 1180 cents per pound will depend on actual planting area, growth conditions, and yield prospects for future speculation. Brazilian soybeans are currently experiencing a peak export period, with sales periods for shipments in June and July. Domestic soybean arrivals are also at a peak, and it is estimated that the downward trend in domestic soybean meal spot prices will continue.
