Benchmark expectation: crude oil expected to continue inventory reduction after May, underlying factors still point towards bullish

On May 24th, at the opening of early trading, crude oil futures opened high and continued to rise, with LPG and SC crude oil both rising more than 2%. According to research reports from Guotai Junan Futures, overnight oil prices closed higher, and Saudi Arabia warned short-selling speculators, increasing market expectations for further production cuts. The API data showed a significant decline in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories last week. In the short term, positive news dominates the news side. Currently, the supply-side production cuts have turned from expectations to reality, while demand data remains resilient at the micro level. The benchmark expectation is that inventory reduction will continue after May, pointing towards a basic bullish scenario. However, the short-term rhythm still needs to pay attention to the macro sentiment fluctuations caused by the debt ceiling negotiations.