NEW YORK, Feb 10 – Coffee futures in New York surged by over 6% on Monday, reaching a new all-time high of more than $4.30 per pound on the ICE exchange. This increase is largely attributed to panic buying, as concerns over limited coffee availability have intensified.
Arabica coffee futures marked a record for the 13th consecutive trading session. Reports of a dry, hot weather system forming over Brazil’s coffee-growing regions further fueled the price surge. Brazilian farmers, who are the world’s largest coffee producers, are also reluctant to sell their coffee, contributing to the market’s uncertainty.
Panic Buying Drives Market Prices
“Panic has finally shown up, and prices will continue to rise,” said Bob Fish, co-founder of Biggby Coffee, a coffee franchise with 350 stores across the U.S. Fish highlighted two potential factors that could halt the price increases: a strong yield from Brazil and Vietnam (which isn’t expected until August 2026) or a significant reduction in demand in consuming countries due to the rising prices.
Fish advised U.S. coffee shops to raise their prices to avoid seeing their profit margins “evaporate.”
New Price Records and Market Concerns
Coffee futures on the ICE exchange, a global pricing benchmark, hit a new peak of $4.2410 per pound before closing at $4.211 per pound, up 6.2%. The March expiring spot contract reached a high of $4.3195 per pound.
This marks a 35% price increase for coffee so far this year, following a 70% rise in 2024. The surge is driven by concerns over low stocks in Brazil, which produces nearly half of the world’s arabica coffee.
Brazilian farmers have sold approximately 85% of their current crop and are not rushing to sell any remaining stock. “The coffee left in the balance sheet might be in the ‘wrong’ side of the world, lying at the hands of strong Brazilian producers,” said a coffee broker. This suggests that Brazilian farmers are financially well-positioned to hold off on selling.
Mixed Outlook on Future Coffee Supply
While the current surge in arabica coffee prices is partially self-perpetuating, some market participants believe that future harvests may bring relief. “The next Brazilian harvest could be better than expected,” said trader Icona Cafe, though they don’t anticipate it surpassing last year’s crop. Broker Hedgepoint even forecasts that Brazil’s 2025/26 harvest will outproduce the previous season, estimating 64.1 million bags of coffee, compared to 63.4 million in 2024/25.
Meanwhile, ICE arabica speculators, key drivers of the current price rally, reduced their net long position (bets on price increases) by 3,130 contracts to 50,333 contracts as of February 4, according to industry data.
Robusta Coffee and Other Commodities
In contrast to arabica, robusta coffee—a cheaper alternative used mainly for instant coffee—rose 2.4%, reaching $5,697 per ton. It had hit a record high of $5,840 per ton on January 31.
In other soft commodities, New York cocoa fell by 2.3%, reaching $9,878 per ton after a 7% drop last week. Meanwhile, London cocoa decreased 1.7%, settling at £7,919 per ton. Raw sugar futures increased by 0.7%, reaching 19.50 cents per pound, while white sugar rose by 0.3%, reaching $519.40 per ton.
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