Crude oil futures remained stable on Friday, heading towards a second consecutive week of modest losses, as concerns over global trade tensions and tariff policies weighed on market sentiment.
Market Overview
Brent Crude: The April 2025 ICE Brent futures traded at $74.68 per barrel (as of 1800 GMT), slightly up from Thursday’s settle of $74.29. The April/May 2025 spread has narrowed to approximately +0.45 per barrel this week.
WTI: The March 2025 NYMEX WTI futures were priced at $70.97 per barrel, compared to Thursday’s close of $70.61.
These levels are now back to where they were at the start of the year, erasing the January price spike caused by US sanctions on Russia. US tariff policies have taken center stage in influencing market direction.
Impact of Tariffs
Tariffs imposed on Canadian crude briefly lifted prices earlier in the week, but following a one-month deferral, oil markets have seen a decline. This downturn is largely driven by fears of an escalating global trade war.
China’s Response: China retaliated to the US’s 10% surcharges on its goods by imposing tariffs of 10-15% on US imports. Investors are also closely monitoring possible trade actions from Washington against Europe.
Iran Sanctions and Market Response
The oil market experienced a brief rally after the Trump administration announced new sanctions on Iran on Thursday, targeting an alleged illicit international network involved in shipping millions of barrels of crude to China.
However, the $2 per barrel spike was quickly reversed. Analysts noted that the immediate impact on Iranian exports was unlikely. Furthermore, any successful US policy to reduce Iran’s oil revenues to zero would require broad support from OPEC, which remains uncertain.
Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management commented, “Trump has thrown down the gauntlet, demanding that OPEC bring more barrels back to market to cool energy prices. OPEC’s response? A classic display of defiance, brushing off Trump’s demands with a reminder that they—not Washington—set the price of oil.”
Closing Prices
Last Friday, April 2025 Brent futures closed at $75.43 per barrel.
March 2024 WTI settled at $72.53 per barrel.
As the week closes, oil prices remain in a holding pattern, influenced by a mix of trade fears and geopolitical tensions.
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