Corn futures for March delivery fell by 0.2% on Wednesday, settling at $4.48 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). Prices struggled to break past the $4.50 per bushel mark despite a recent report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) that reduced its forecast for corn’s ending stocks.
Soybean and Wheat Prices See Modest Gains
Soybeans for January delivery rose slightly by 0.1%, closing at $9.95 1/2 per bushel.
Wheat for March delivery also gained 0.1%, finishing at $5.62 1/4 per bushel.
Key Highlights
Corn Futures Face Resistance at $4.50
Corn futures showed positive movement early on, benefiting from a hopeful outlook after the USDA’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. However, prices faced resistance and could not break the $4.50 per bushel threshold. According to Matt Zeller from StoneX, while there was positive sentiment following the USDA’s forecast cut, corn prices encountered difficulties surpassing this ceiling throughout the day. The USDA’s report highlighted a reduction of 200 million bushels in projected ending stocks for corn, which initially sparked optimism.
Declining Wheat Exports from Russia Could Raise Prices
Russia’s wheat exports are expected to drop in December, with a forecast of around 3.3 million to 3.5 million metric tons, according to SovEcon. This would represent a decrease from 4.1 million tons in November. The slowdown in exports is attributed to higher export taxes, which have decreased profitability for Russian wheat exporters. SovEcon suggests that this decline in exports could lead to higher global wheat prices.
Market Insights
Key Days Ahead for Corn Futures
Traders are focusing on how corn futures perform in the coming days, as this could determine the market’s direction for the rest of the year. Analysts at AgResource suggest that whether traders engage in profit-taking or push through resistance levels will be crucial. Specifically, if the speculative community breaks through resistance levels that have held since the summer, it could set the tone for future price movements.
Potential Tariff Impact on Grain Prices in 2025
ING Economics warns that tariffs expected to take effect when President-elect Trump assumes office in January could pressure commodity futures, particularly grains. If retaliatory tariffs targeting U.S. agricultural exports, like those seen in 2018, are enacted, grain prices may face additional downward pressure. Weather conditions, particularly dry conditions in key agricultural areas like coffee and cocoa, are also expected to influence soft commodity prices while potentially supporting row crop prices due to beneficial rainfall in some growing regions.
U.S. Ethanol Inventories Decline
U.S. ethanol inventories decreased more than expected, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). For the week ending December 6, ethanol stocks totaled 22.65 million barrels, a decrease of 355,000 barrels from the previous week. This was below the anticipated range of 22.85 to 23.4 million barrels. However, average daily production increased slightly to 1.078 million barrels per day, up 5,000 barrels from the previous week and at the high end of forecasted estimates.
What’s Coming Next?
The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.
The CFTC will publish its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.
The USDA will release its weekly grains export inspections report at 11:00 a.m. ET Monday.
These upcoming reports could provide further insights into market trends and impact price movements in the coming days.
