Crude oil futures saw slight declines in European morning trading on Friday, heading for weekly losses amid a mix of pricing signals and geopolitical uncertainties.
As of 0845 GMT, February 2025 ICE Brent futures were trading at $72.36 per barrel, down from Thursday’s close of $72.78 per barrel. Meanwhile, the January 2025 contract was priced at $72.81 per barrel as it approached expiry.
On the other side of the Atlantic, January 2025 NYMEX WTI futures traded at $68.62 per barrel, slightly lower than Thursday’s settle at $68.72 per barrel, with thin trading volumes ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.
Investors will have to wait until next Thursday for an update on OPEC+ policy for 2025, although market expectations are increasingly priced in for a delay in planned output hikes. OPEC+ has cited a scheduling conflict with a regional GCC meeting as the official reason for the delay. However, analysts suggest that the group may still be working to build a consensus on a new timeline for unwinding production cuts.
“OPEC+ has introduced new uncertainties by delaying its upcoming meeting. Delegates earlier this week signaled that discussions are ongoing about postponing the output hike for several months,” said Ole R. Hvalbye, commodities analyst at SEB. He added that OPEC+ is “acutely aware” of the delicate balance between supply and demand in the market.
Geopolitical factors also weighed on markets, particularly with the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah facing challenges, as both sides accused each other of violations. While the ceasefire has not directly impacted oil flows, analysts warn that a resumption of hostilities could heighten the likelihood of tighter sanctions against Iran and an increase in Houthi activity against shipping in the Red Sea.
Additionally, Russia’s continued attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure raise concerns about potential retaliatory actions from Ukraine, which could affect refining and oil flows.
For the week, both major oil benchmarks have seen declines. On Friday last week, January 2024 Brent futures closed at $75.17 per barrel, while December 2024 WTI settled at $71.24 per barrel.
