KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 12 – The crude palm oil (CPO) futures market on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives is anticipated to trade with a positive bias next week, driven by strong export performance, according to market analysts.
Palm oil trader David Ng noted that expectations of increased exports in the coming weeks could lead to a reduction in overall stock levels within the country, thereby supporting prices. “We expect prices to range between RM4,230 and RM4,450 next week,” Ng shared with Bernama.
Market participants will closely monitor Malaysian palm oil export estimates for October, which are expected to be released by cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Amspec next week.
In contrast, Jim Teh, a senior trader with the Interband Group of Companies, expressed that the CPO market might experience profit-taking next week, predicting prices to fluctuate between RM3,800 and RM3,900 per tonne following the release of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s (MPOB) latest data, which indicated an increase in stock levels for September. “The current CPO price is too high, potentially leading to an increase in food prices,” Teh cautioned.
As usual, physical demand for CPO is expected to come from major markets including India, China, Pakistan, various Middle Eastern countries, the United States, and Europe.
For the trading week ending today, CPO futures predominantly faced downward pressure, influenced by the MPOB’s data along with declining prices of crude oil and soybean oil.
On Thursday, the MPOB reported that palm oil exports in September 2024 rose by 0.93 percent to 1.54 million tonnes, compared to 1.53 million tonnes in August. However, total palm oil stocks increased by 6.93 percent, reaching 2.01 million tonnes from 1.88 million tonnes in the preceding month. In contrast, CPO production fell by 3.8 percent, or 71,926 tonnes, to 1.82 million tonnes in September from 1.89 million tonnes in August.
In terms of performance, on a Friday-to-Friday basis, the spot month October 2024 futures surged by RM124 to RM4,283 per tonne. Similarly, November 2024 increased RM289 to RM4,385, December 2024 rose RM299 to RM4,350, January 2025 gained RM301 to RM4,315, February 2025 advanced RM299 to RM4,278, and March 2025 climbed RM295 to RM4,240.
