Crude oil futures settled at $82.22, marking a modest increase of $0.12 or 0.14% from the previous session. Despite this slight uptick, traders are closely monitoring the technicals to gauge market sentiment and potential future price movements.
Key Technical Observations:
Price Range: The high price reached $85.64 shortly after the Israeli strike on Iran, while the low price was at $81.13.
Weekly Performance: The high and low prices for the week stood at $86.18 and $81.06, respectively. With last week’s closing level at $85.66, the current price reflects a decrease of -3.99% for the week.
April High: The highest level for crude oil in April (and for the entirety of 2024) was $87.67, recorded on April 12th.
Midpoint Analysis: Assessing the daily chart, the recent corrective move to the downside saw prices dip below the 50% midpoint of the range since the 2023 high price, which stands at $81.37. While the low for the week touched $81.06, indicating a move below the midpoint, sustained momentum in this direction was lacking.
Market Sentiment: Despite geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran and Israel, resulting in downward pressure on prices, the significance of the 50% midpoint as a key indicator remains. Staying above this level indicates potential for bullish momentum, while a sustained move below could strengthen the bearish bias and embolden sellers.
Outlook for the New Trading Week:
As the market navigates geopolitical uncertainties, including recent events between Iran and Israel, traders will closely monitor price movements relative to the 50% midpoint level. Remaining above this threshold suggests continued support for buyers, while a breach and sustained stay below could signal increased selling pressure.
In summary, while recent events have influenced market dynamics, the technical landscape, particularly the 50% midpoint, remains crucial in guiding trading strategies and determining future price direction. As the new trading week unfolds, market participants will look to this key level as a barometer for market sentiment and potential opportunities.
