On June 7, international crude oil fell into range shocks.
Saudi Arabia’s efforts to reduce production by 1 million barrels per day may be partially offset by Russia’s increase in production. As of June 4, Russia’s shipping volume continued to rise in the four weeks, and Saudi Arabia urged Russia to improve data transparency.
We believe that by the end of June at the latest, Russia will either cut production, or the unity of OPEC+ will be damaged to a certain extent.
Saudi Arabia needs a fiscal balance oil price of US$80 to complete its super project, and Russia needs to sell more oil to raise funds for the war. If there is a possibility that the lower edge of the shock may be broken, the risk lies in this.
As the operating rate of U.S. refineries increases, the supply of refined oil also tends to increase. API reports that U.S. refined oil is fully accumulated.
We maintain our view that oil prices are range-bound.
